← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 37% | 30% | 2.66 | fair |
| NEC win | 35% | 43% | 2.78 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | André Fomitschow · NEC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Pele Van Anholt · Willem II Tilburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Willem II Tilburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jordy Croux · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1913.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| elo | 1461.35 | 1418.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.02 | 3.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 62.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |