← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | José San Román · ADO Den Haag |
| 26' | ⚽ (og) | Wilfried Kanon · SC Heerenveen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 36' | 🟨 | Stefano Marzo · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 966.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| elo | 1537.55 | 1553.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.78 | 25.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.67 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.17 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |