← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 76% | 84% | 1.29 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.37 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 9% | 5% | 10.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Lars Lambooij · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 38' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 52' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 754.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| elo | 1703.22 | 1383.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | -1.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.11 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |