← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 77% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 18% | 7.30 | value: +29% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 6% | 6% | 15.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Wout Brama · PEC Zwolle |
| 8' | ⚽ | Davinson Sánchez · AFC Ajax |
| 15' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 17' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Davinson Sánchez · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 115.00 | 1211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| elo | 1856.23 | 1519.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.13 | -53.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.71 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| league points | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.86 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 22.79 | 24.96 |
| state index | 1.25 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |