← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 42% | 49% | 2.31 | value: +14% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 32% | 28% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Bart Schenkeveld · PEC Zwolle |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | 🟨 | Iliass Bel Hassani · AZ |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
| 43' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mattias Johansson · AZ |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · AZ |
| 87' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1205.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.20 |
| elo | 1529.56 | 1706.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.87 | 5.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.25 | 63.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.75 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.25 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.65 | 24.32 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |