β Eredivisie 2016-17 Β· Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
| NEC win | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | β½ | Thomas Verhaar Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 22' | π¨ | Ryan Sanusi Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 48' | π¨ | Janio Bikel Β· NEC |
| 63' | π¨ | Kevin Mayi Β· NEC |
| 69' | π¨ | Quincy Owusu-Abeyie Β· NEC |
| 76' | π¨ | Mart Dijkstra Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 77' | π¨ | Florian Pinteaux Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 77' | π¨ | Dario ΔumiΔ Β· NEC |
| 81' | β½ | Zakaria El Azzouzi Β· Sparta Rotterdam |
| 82' | π¨ | Wojciech Golla Β· NEC |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 626.00 | 1906.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | β |
| elo | 1387.00 | 1477.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.42 | -1.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | β | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.25 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |