← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Liesveld, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.97 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 21% | 18% | 4.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 80' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| elo | 1420.05 | 1434.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.35 | 38.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |