← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 71% | 65% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | 5.47 | value: +37% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 11% | 10% | 8.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Leon de Kogel · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| elo | 1607.34 | 1402.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.96 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |