← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 41% | 2.54 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 20' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 35' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jeroen van der Lely · FC Twente '65 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bersant Celina · FC Twente '65 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kevin Jansen · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kamohelo Mokotjo · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 47.00 | 959.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1537.22 | 1552.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.12 | 19.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 73.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |