← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 40% | 2.65 | value: +5% |
| Roda JC win | 35% | 29% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.43 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 34' | 🟥 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 43' | 🟥 | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Shay Facey · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jeremiah St. Juste · SC Heerenveen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ard Van Peppen · Roda JC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Shay Facey · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | 🟥 | Shay Facey · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | ⚽ | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| elo | 1412.65 | 1539.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.24 | 17.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |