← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Aug 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 53% | 2.17 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.53 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 24% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Heracles |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 38' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 54' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 57' | 🟨 | Brahim Darri · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 939.00 | 758.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.80 |
| elo | 1578.22 | 1539.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.40 | 2.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 78.33 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.67 | 81.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 24.46 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.79 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |