← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Aug 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 68% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.14 | fair |
| NEC win | 13% | 17% | 7.48 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Dabney dos Santos · AZ |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dabney dos Santos · AZ |
| 53' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 53' | 🟥 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kevin Mayi · NEC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 727.00 | 1885.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 5.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | — |
| elo | 1703.97 | 1503.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.12 | -8.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 68.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 38.33 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| squad age | 24.27 | 24.66 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |