← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 56% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 18% | 4.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1072.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1565.90 | 1544.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.29 | 17.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.55 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |