← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 50% | 50% | 1.94 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 858.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1388.84 | 1394.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | -17.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| state index | -1.12 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |