← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 47% | 53% | 2.06 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.67 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 26% | 23% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1766.00 | 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1512.26 | 1437.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.39 | -16.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |