← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Thu, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 38% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 35% | 39% | 2.82 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 72.00 | 1756.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1390.86 | 1435.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.81 | -43.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| state index | -1.16 | -1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |