← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Wed, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 628.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1544.28 | 1669.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.12 | 31.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 49.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.81 |
| state index | 0.52 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |