← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Wed, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 62% | 66% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.55 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 17% | 14% | 5.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2120.00 | 3581.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.75 | 1864.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.72 | 8.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 41.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.42 |
| state index | 0.20 | 1.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |