← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 29% | 34% | 3.33 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 837.00 | 2117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1394.67 | 1555.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.30 | 2.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |