← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 67% | 72% | 1.45 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.72 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 12% | 9% | 8.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3578.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1871.49 | 1606.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.81 | 31.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 74.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.63 |
| state index | 1.85 | 0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |