← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.90 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2110.00 | 587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1537.76 | 1663.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.03 | -4.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.62 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |