← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| AZ win | 25% | 31% | 3.88 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 579.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1658.21 | 1835.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.69 | -14.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 47.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 2.36 |
| state index | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |