← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1540.00 | 566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1573.25 | 1674.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.93 | 34.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |