← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 48% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 25% | 23% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1869.88 | 1847.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.31 | 11.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| league points | 66.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 2.41 |
| state index | 1.72 | 1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |