← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
| NEC win | 19% | 22% | 5.05 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 778.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1544.69 | 1522.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.99 | -5.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.48 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |