← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 62% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +12% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 14% | 6.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 771.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1596.05 | 1541.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.52 | -2.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 41.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |