← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 50% | 56% | 1.96 | value: +10% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 590.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1506.15 | 1415.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.93 | -18.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.62 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |