← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 83% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.57 | fair |
| NEC win | 6% | 6% | 15.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3543.00 | 1717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1855.21 | 1514.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.56 | -16.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 64.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 1.50 |
| state index | 1.85 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |