← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 36% | 36% | 2.68 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 36% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 801.00 | 1015.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.72 | 1552.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.85 | -28.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |