← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 44% | 52% | 2.24 | value: +16% |
| Heracles win | 29% | 23% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1710.00 | 583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1505.92 | 1514.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.92 | -34.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |