← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 66% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.53 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 12% | 16% | 7.85 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1008.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1559.56 | 1871.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.44 | 19.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 34.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.48 |
| state index | -0.17 | 1.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |