← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 55% | 59% | 1.77 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.09 | fair |
| AZ win | 21% | 17% | 4.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3529.00 | 545.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1842.47 | 1668.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.47 | 60.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| league points | 58.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.67 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |