← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 79% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 7.39 | value: +26% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 6% | 3% | 17.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3522.00 | 781.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1840.69 | 1391.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.83 | -18.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.05 |
| league points | 55.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 0.83 |
| state index | 1.28 | -1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |