← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 78% | 83% | 1.26 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 6.91 | fair |
| Heracles win | 8% | 6% | 11.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1865.62 | 1545.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.81 | 8.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| league points | 56.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.65 |
| state index | 1.81 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |