← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 66% | 65% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.81 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 14% | 14% | 7.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 537.00 | 994.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1656.93 | 1583.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 67.08 | 17.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.48 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |