← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 56% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.76 | value: +14% |
| FC Groningen win | 18% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 988.00 | 3515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1588.66 | 1835.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.24 | -2.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 34.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.36 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |