← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 45% | 52% | 2.19 | value: +13% |
| FC Utrecht win | 29% | 21% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 221.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1575.53 | 1852.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.12 | 22.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 32.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.38 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |