← Eredivisie 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 55% | 68% | 1.78 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.73 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 19% | 15% | 5.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3508.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1831.65 | 1648.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.10 | -89.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| league points | 49.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.71 |
| state index | 1.08 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |