← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 63% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.88 | value: +15% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 17% | 19% | 5.72 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | 1050.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1490.03 | 1412.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.08 | -5.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |