← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 31% | 3.97 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.43 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 501.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.72 | 1621.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.00 | 4.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 32.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |