← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 65% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.20 | value: +20% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 17% | 14% | 5.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 470.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1511.09 | 1815.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.51 | 33.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 37.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.58 |
| state index | 0.27 | 1.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |