← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 45% | 51% | 2.19 | value: +13% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 26% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1533.82 | 1430.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.84 | -12.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |