← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 83% | 87% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.51 | fair |
| Heracles win | 7% | 5% | 14.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1812.94 | 1493.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.54 | 25.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 82.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.06 |
| state index | 1.70 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |