← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 36% | 2.39 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 34% | 33% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.89 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1459.95 | 1556.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.08 | 1.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |