← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.97 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 25% | 4.15 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 229.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1589.01 | 1518.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.25 | -7.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |