← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.68 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 435.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1489.93 | 1506.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.28 | 4.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |