← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 59% | 1.92 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 22% | 19% | 4.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 465.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1437.35 | 1662.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | 16.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.66 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |