← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 76% | 83% | 1.28 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.52 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1797.51 | 1561.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.77 | 0.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| league points | 73.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.59 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |