← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 49% | 44% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +10% |
| AZ win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1616.05 | 1739.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | 15.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| league points | 50.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.93 |
| state index | 0.45 | 1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |