← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.24 | value: +7% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 19% | 21% | 5.22 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1560.55 | 1443.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.13 | 11.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.07 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |